Many Religious Voters Favor Senator Obama

As the U.S. presidential candidates, Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain, continue to fine-tune their platforms before this month's party conventions, a survey released this week has renewed debate about the political leanings of a prominent, and often misunderstood, group of voters: Christians.

Ever since George W. Bush rode a wave of evangelical votes into the White House in 2000 and 2004, political analysts have been mulling just how much restless evangelicals, with their strong views on hot-button issues like abortion and gay marriage, seem to be reshaping the political landscape.

Faith-based groups have been the domain of the Republican Party lately, but political times could be changing. A study released this week by the Barna Group, a Christian research and consulting firm based in Ventura, Calif., finds that Senator Obama, the Democratic nominee, currently enjoys the support of more faith-driven voters, including Christians, than his Republican rival.

The poll, which shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain 43 percent to 34 percent among likely voters, also finds Obama leading in 18 of 19 different religious faith communities defined by the survey's strict standards. McCain leads in only one--evangelicals. Regardless, there is little doubt that evangelicals are still a highly motivated, well-organized voting bloc. Nearly 90 percent of evangelicals in the Barna study said they intend to vote in November.

The survey shows that the much debated "God gap" between Republicans and Democrats among Christian voters as a whole may not be nearly as dramatic as it appeared in 2004. Indeed, among those who self-identify as "evangelical" but who don't fit the Barna group's criteria, John McCain holds only a 39 to 37 lead over Barack Obama, with nearly 1 in 4 voters saying they are still undecided.

Among most other Christian groups, the Democratic candidate continues to enjoy a comfortable lead. Senator Obama has a huge advantage among non-Christians, atheists, and agnostics, but he also leads among nonevangelical, born-again Christians (43 to 31), Christians who are neither born-again nor evangelical (44 to 28), Catholics (39 to 29), and Protestants (43 to 34). If the current preferences stand pat, this would mark the first time in more than two decades that the born-again vote has swung toward the Democratic candidate.

Experts aren't sure exactly what is causing this shift. Senator Obama has made a concerted effort to reach out to faith-oriented voters, including a splashy announcement this summer about expanding President Bush's faith-based initiative. He speaks more openly about his faith than many previous Democratic presidential candidates, and he has made an effort to find common ground with opponents of abortion.

Still, most experts believe that Christian voters' preferences, like those of many other voters, have less to do with the candidates' current positions than with a backlash against the Bush presidency. When asked to describe what makes the candidates stand out, at the top of the list for Christian voters currently supporting Barack Obama is "being different from George Bush."

When the pre-election advertising campaigns begin this fall--particularly those that emphasize Senator Obama's support for abortion rights--those numbers may drop. There is a lot of anger toward the Bush administration.