Most Democrats and quite a few Republicans believe that President George “Dubya” Bu$h has been a historic screw-up as President. Therefore it should be an easy win for any Democrat winning the nomination. That might have been true before the last eight weeks of negative campaigning, beginning with the Clinton strategy of throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, in the two weeks leading up to the Texas and Ohio primaries. And when Senator Obama went there too, I believe he lost some of those last minute undecided Pennsylvania voters.
Senator Hillary Clinton won a victory in Pennsylvania, but it came at a significant cost to the reputation of both candidates and to the Democratic Party. She won with an assault on Senator Obama's character flaws, real and imagined, rather than on matters of substance. She also suffered a bizarre self-inflicted wound, having reimagined her peaceful landing at a Bosnian airstrip in 1996 as a battlefield scene complete with sniper fire. After six weeks of this, according to one poll, 60% of the American people considered her "untrustworthy." Senator Barack Obama entered the primary as a fresh breeze and left it battered and an a bit disillusioned. He is still the mathematical favorite for the nomination but maybe no longer the darling of his party. All of which deepened the skepticism that lesser educated Whites had about this a young, inexperienced Black guy with an Islamic-sounding name and a highfalutin speaking ability. And worse, it raised questions among the elders of the Democratic Party about Senator Obama's ability to hold on to crucial strongholds like Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey in the general election.
Of course the bulk of the stuff is merely pure trash, but the reality of American politics: you have to get the social body language right if you want voters to consider your message. The media would have you believe that most people make their choice on the basis of "low-information signaling" - stupid things like whether you know how to roll a bowling ball or wear an American-flag pin. This is usually a Republican strong suit, but Bill Clinton was the lone Democratic master of low-information signaling - a love of McDonald's and other assorted big-gulp appetites gave him credibility that even trumped his evasion of military service. Maybe he learned it from his wife, who was raised a Republican and remained one until in her mid twenties.
The audacity of Senator Obama was the belief that the low-information politics of the past could be tossed aside in favor of an appeal to the nation's need to finally address some huge problems. But that assumption hit a wall in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is second only to Florida in the age of its population, and I guess it’s true you can’t teach an old dog new tricks. Senator Obama, who entered the race intent on getting past the political campaigns of the past, has now become deeply entangled in them. It was pushed along in the debate televised and hosted by ABC. The ABC moderators' questions were about controversies, presumably to raise their rating, rather than questions concerning relevant issues like, the ECONOMY and the main drain on the economy, Iraq; health care; gas prices; mortgage foreclosures; etc.
Senator Obama’s appeal has been the promise of a new more civil sort of politics (and as a Black man, he wants to send low-information signals that he is neither angry nor threatening). But maybe he needs to show a little more attitude. When he was asked the silly question about not wearing a flag pin, I wanted a reply from like why aren’t you guys wearing pins or why isn’t Senator Clinton wearing a pin. The president wears a pin every day and he mislead the country into an unjust war.
Senator Barack Obama once again faces questions about his toughness and willingness to play politics the old-fashioned way in response to Senator Hillary Clinton's attacks. Senator Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe strongly denied a Washington Post report Wednesday that they intended to go heavily negative following the loss in Pennsylvania - dredging up old sores such as former President Bill Clinton's impeachment and the Whitewater scandal. His campaign Obama has faced pressure to attack Clinton - pressure he has usually avoided until Pennsylvania. Throughout the long summer, when Clinton was viewed as the inevitable Democratic nominee, Obama supporters pushed him to go on the offensive. Instead, he held his tongue, stressed his theme of change and a new kind of politics, and found himself surging to a stunning victory in Iowa. The campaign has dragged on and gotten increasingly heated. "It's a double edged sword for him and he's supposed to be new and different and when he runs negative ads people say what's new and different about this?" said Congressman Jason Altmire, an undecided superdelegate from western Pennsylvania. Donna Brazile, Al Gore's former campaign manager and a still-undecided superdelegate, believes the attacks - both Clinton's and the GOP's - are aimed at painting Senator Obama into the stereotypical angry Black man. "First he wasn't Black enough, then too Black because of Rev. Wright," said Brazile. "They want a rise out of him and that will ultimately destroy his candidacy that will make him the angry Black male. Obama must create a new movement and he must create a whole new choir and in his new choir he's the conductor and they are inspired by hope," Brazile continued. "They are not looking to hear that angry jocular masculine tone that we're accustomed to in American politics. He should not hit an angry note. It's not what the choir will listen to."
Senator Obama recognizes his dilemma - that when it comes to going negative, he is damned if he does and damned if doesn't. Voters "are not looking for politicians to be calling each other names and acting with a lot of bluster. That's been the politics we have had for the last 20 years. They are looking for somebody who is tough enough to stand up to the political tides when it is the right thing to do," he said Wednesday. "That is the kind of toughness I have shown for my entire career and public life. And that’s why I think I am going to be the democratic nominee."
One 58-year-old White woman from New Albany, Indiana said she left Senator Obama's town hall Wednesday "a believer." She said she's glad the race has gone on as long as it has because it led her to Senator Obama. "I first supported John Edwards and when he dropped out I backed Hillary," she said. "In the beginning I don't think his message really resounded. But then Clinton, she has slowly been chipping away my support; she's done everything I hoped she wouldn't. She went there with her attacks. I started leaning towards Obama and today sealed the deal." For Senator Obama the test is if he has enough supporters like her, people who don't want him to go negative in Indiana - and will reward him greatly if he resists the pressure to do so. But the presidency will not be won if he doesn't learn that the only way to reach the moral conversation he wants, and the country badly needs, is to figure out how to maneuver his way through the gutter.
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