Senator Hillary Clinton celebrated another must-win victory Tuesday night in Pennsylvania, with a survival win over Senator Barack Obama that she sought to frame as a sign of her strength. In her victory speech, Senator Clinton told her supporters that because of you, the tide is turning. But both candidates wake up today to the same underlying realities. Senator Barack Obama leads among delegates to the Democratic National Convention, and Senator Clinton faces another must-win primary in two weeks. Both candidates plan to spend the balance of this week in Indiana. Senator Obama spoke in Evansville, Indiana, Tuesday night, and after briefly congratulating Senator Clinton, he quickly turned his attention to Republican Senator John McCain and played the role of the presumptive nominee.
Pennsylvania was considered a state tailor-made for Senator Clinton, and by rights she should have won big. She has family roots in the state. She has the support of the Democratic establishment, including Governor Rendell's extensive network and mayors of most of the cities, and former President Clinton has a long history there and is fondly remembered. The state is mostly rural blue-collar, and it is the second oldest state in the union. Basically Senator Clinton did what she was supposed to do only not as well as she hoped. She actually lost 10 points from her lead in Pennsylvania over the past month. She started the Pennsylvania campaign six weeks age with a 20 plus point lead and won by ten points.
The one thing that Senator Clinton's victory ensured is that the primary will continue, and the results revealed many of the same patterns of strength and weakness that have been present in many of the Democratic contests. Indeed, Pennsylvania seemed to be a close replay of the March 5 Ohio primary, which Senator Clinton also won. Senator Clinton won heavily among working-class and older White voters and older women. Senator Obama won near-total support from Blacks and younger voters.
Another reality in the rural western section of Pennsylvania is the race factor. The media refuses to mention it but racism is alive and well in eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania. The Associated Press reported that 16 percent of White voters in those area said race was a factor in their votes, and only 56 percent of those voters said they would support Senator Obama in a general election. Twenty-seven percent of them said they would vote for Senator McCain if Senator Obama was the Democratic nominee, and 15 percent said they would not vote at all. I guess people were right when they say that Pennsylvania consists of Philadelphia, Pittsburg and the rest 1960’s Alabama.
Tuesday's results will determine the allocation of 158 delegates, and those delegates will be divided proportionately under Democratic Party rules. That means Senator Clinton's win will make only a marginal dent in Senator Obama's delegate lead. Senator Obama also had a margin of several hundred thousand in the total of popular votes cast in previous nominating contests held in more than four-fifths of the states. Senator Clinton, whose campaign is predicated on the contention that her political experience trumps Senator Obama's call for political change, has consistently tried to persuade superdelegates that she would be the stronger Democratic opponent to Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumed Republican nominee. But her overall vote deficit to Senator Obama in the Democratic contest has made it more difficult for her to make that argument. Bad new for Senator Clinton is that she has yet to reverse the slow, steady flow of superdelegates to Senator Obama.
In my opinion, Senator Obama will continue to gain strength with Democratic superdelegates. He will maintain his position as the best candidate to take on Senator John McCain. And he is ready to unite the American people and begin a new chapter in our history.
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