Senator Barack Obama is gaining ground on Senator Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, moving within range of a major upset in the April 22 primary that would virtually end the hard-fought Democratic presidential race months earlier than expected. Less than two weeks before their next showdown, opinion polls show Senator Obama cutting Senator Clinton's once big lead in Pennsylvania to single digits and making gains among some voting blocs that have been her most reliable backers.
A win in Pennsylvania for Senator Obama would be a shocking twist in a Democratic race filled with them, effectively killing Senator Clinton's hopes of overtaking him in the fight for the right to face Republican Senator John McCain in November's presidential election. "If Obama wins Pennsylvania, the race is over," said one political analyst. Pennsylvania had been considered a lock for Senator Clinton because of its high concentration of the older, White, Catholic and blue-collar voters that form the backbone of her coalition. And she was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania. But a successful six-day bus tour of the state and a few bad weeks for Clinton has helped tighten the race. A new poll showed Senator Clinton's lead at 6 points, down from 9 points last week, 12 points in mid-March and as much as 26 points in February. An average of all polls in the state this week shows Clinton with about a 7-point advantage. The poll showed Senator Obama gaining ground among Whites, women and those voters who rank the economy as their top issue. He also is picking up support in the populous and crucial Philadelphia suburbs.
Senator Obama's advertising had been effective and his week-long swing through the state showed him talking with voters in a more personal and effective style. He was talking specifics about health care and the economy -- really talking to people about the problems they face. Meanwhile, Senator Clinton suffered through questions about her lie that she faced sniper fire in Bosnia in 1996 -- she said she "misspoke" -- and whether she should even remain in the race amid dwindling hopes of catching Senator Obama. Senator Obama has a nearly unbeatable lead on Senator Clinton in the pledged delegates and picking up superdelegates daily. She hopes the final contests will help her close the gap in pledged delegates and catch him in popular votes cast in the state-by-state contests. All that is gone with a loss in Pennsylvania or possibly even with a narrow win. A narrow win for her and he can almost declare a victory anyway; that may not get her out of the race but it deflates her arguments.
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