Queen of the Hill Country

The term "hillbilly" originally referred to Northern Ireland Protestants in the 17th century, supporters of King William ("Billy.") Later the term gained its modern usage as being descriptive of people of the Appalachian region (West Virginia, Western Pennsylvania, Kentucky and a large portion of Ohio) who are viewed as unlearned, unsophisticated and unwilling to accept new ideas and new ways of thing.

Senator Hillary Clinton, through her dad, is a descendant of British Protestant immigrant forebears who settled in the Appalachian region. Between that background, and her time as First Lady of Arkansas, which includes part of the Ozark Mountains, Hillary Clinton has a natural, built-in base that essentially makes her Queen of the Hillbillies.

The political critics, pollsters and general population have it all wrong. Senator Barack Obama doesn't have a "working-class White" problem; Hillary has a non-hillbilly problem. Since February 5’s, Super Duper Tuesday, Senator Clinton has won exactly two states that were NOT infested with hillbillies; Tiny Rhode Island on March 4 and a narrow victory in Indiana.

Recent polling shows that Senator Obama has actually closed the gap between himself and Senator in what had been considered her core supporters. Among Whites they are tied at 47% and, shockingly, virtually tied (47% Obama to 46% Clinton) among voters with no college education. Most tellingly, he has surged to a 7-point preference among Latinos. Oregon exit polls confirm these trends, where he won among Whites 57% - 42%, among women 52% - 48% and among those making less than $50,000 54% - 45%.

So, clearly, the conventional wisdom about a national preference among "working-class Whites" for Senator Clinton is a myth. The reality is that, if it weren't for the Appalachians and the Ozarks, this race would have been over two months ago. The huge showing she's had in those areas has allowed her to maintain the illusion that she is a strong national candidate. But the truth is that she only beats up on Senator Obama in counties that vote Republican in the general, anyway. In an article at Talking Post Memo (TPM), Josh Marshall laid out a map of the Appalachian region against a map showing the counties across the U.S. where Senator Clinton has won 65% of the votes and they match up to a Tee. The effect is clear in states that she's won, like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Arkansas. But if you compare the county-by-county results, you'll see that even in states where Senator Obama has won, she still wins the hillbilly country.

The bottom line is that, for the last 15 weeks, Clinton's only remaining strength is among voters like Granny Clampett, Ma Kettle, Snuffy Smith Li'l Abner and Archie Bunker. She's the Queen of the Billary Hillbillies and almost no one else.