Saturday, May 10, 2008

Senator Obama Overtakes Lead in Superdelegates for First Time

Senator Barack Obama erased Senator Hillary Clinton's once-imposing lead among superdelegates Saturday when he added more endorsements from the group of Democrats who will decide the party's nomination for president. He added superdelegates from Utah, Ohio and Arizona, as well as two from the Virgin Islands who had previously backed Senator Clinton. The additions enabled Senator Obama to surpass Senator Clinton's total for the first time in the campaign. He had picked up nine endorsements Friday.

The milestone is important because Senator Clinton would need to win over the superdelegates by a wide margin to claim the nomination. They are a group that Clinton owned before the first caucus, when she was able to cash in on the popularity of the Clinton brand among the party faithful. Those party insiders, however, have been steadily streaming to Senator Obama since he started posting wins in early voting states. Superdelegates are key because neither candidate can win the nomination without them. Nearly 800 superdelegates will attend the convention. Senator Obama has endorsements from 276, according to the latest tally by The Associated Press; Senator Clinton has 271.5.

"I always felt that if anybody establishes himself as the clear leader, the superdelegates would fall in line," said Don Fowler, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee. "It is perceived that he is the leader," said Fowler, a superdelegate from South Carolina who supports Senator Clinton. "The trickle is going to become an avalanche."

Many of the superdelegates who endorsed Senator Obama in the past week said it is time for the party to unite behind him. Senator Obama is coming off a big win in North Carolina's Democratic primary Tuesday. Senator Clinton narrowly won Indiana's primary the same day, but Senator Obama did better than many expected. Senator Obama has added 21 superdelegates since and Senator Clinton has had a net increase of two. Senator Clinton started the year with a 106-delegate lead among superdelegates, a margin that started to shrink after Obama won the Iowa caucuses in early January. Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not aligned with either candidate, said the Democratic National Committee was filled with superdelegates who had long supported Clinton and her husband, the former president. That gave Clinton a built-in advantage. "The DNC was her turf, and she was the candidate of the insiders," Backus said. "Normally the party activists march lockstep with the establishment candidate," Backus said. "They didn't do that this time." Kevin Rodriquez of the Virgin Islands said in a statement that he switched from Clinton to Obama because he thinks Obama has brought energy and excitement to the party. "He has shown he can connect with Democrats, Republicans and independents across this country, whether we live on the mainland or an island," Rodriquez said.

Even during Senator Obama's toughest stretch of the campaign, when his former pastor's comments dominated the headlines, he kept churning out superdelegate endorsements. And when Senator Clinton posted a big win in the Pennsylvania primary, Senator Obama collected still more. Senator Clinton picked up the pace of her endorsements after Pennsylvania, adding 11.5 superdelegates in the following two weeks. Senator Obama countered by adding 22.

A little more than 200 superdelegates remain undecided, and about 40 others will be named by state parties at state conventions and meetings throughout the spring. Senator Obama has a 163-delegate lead among the pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses. That means Senator Clinton would have to generate an identical lead among superdelegates to catch him. There are 217 pledged delegates at stake in the remaining six primaries. Senator Obama is on track to secure a majority of the pledged delegates on May 20, when Kentucky and Oregon vote.

In the overall race for the nomination, Senator Obama has 1,864.5 delegates and Clinton has 1,697. He is just 160.5 delegates shy of the 2,025 needed to secure the Democratic nomination.

Ohio labor leader Dave Regan, who was selected as a superdelegate Saturday, told the AP that Senator Obama is "the candidate that can unite the country and move beyond the divisiveness and gridlock that we have today. Obama is looking like a stronger and stronger candidate," Regan said. "I think it's very likely he will be the nominee." Besides Regan and Rodriquez, Senator Obama added endorsements from Carole Burke of the Virgin Islands, Kristi Cumming of Utah and Representative Harry Mitchell of Arizona.

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